OC Transpo's plan to improve bus reliability
Recruiting operators, catching up on bus maintenance, and a new route network
Every cancelled or late bus has an impact on Ottawa residents. Missed appointments, late for school or work, and a longer commute. OC Transpo’s target (and the industry standard) for daily cancellations is no more than 0.5% of trips cancelled – or about 40-50 trips per weekday.
In November 2023, OC Transpo staff presented a plan to improve bus network reliability. In this post I’ll outline how OC Transpo measures reliability, what factors are affecting reliability, and what is being done to improve reliability in the coming weeks and months.
(A version of this post was originally published in December at glengower.ca)
How does OC Transpo measure reliability?
OC Transpo uses a metric called “conventional bus service delivery” to measure bus service reliability. It measures the number of trips delivered against the number of trips scheduled.
OC Transpo’s target for service delivery is 99.5%, recognizing that there will always be some degree of variability in schedules due to weather, traffic, emergencies, or mechanical issues. In real numbers, that means no more than 40-50 bus cancellations per day, and the target is aligned to industry standards. OC Transpo provides monthly metrics to Transit Commission.
For example, on an average weekday in October 2023, there were 7,889 trips delivered against 8,148 trips scheduled, or a delivery rate of 97.2%. That’s 259 trips cancelled, more than five times the target. Not good!
This chart shows bus service delivery over the past year, based on the most recent numbers provided at the November 2024 transit commission. The dotted line shows the 99.5% service delivery target, and the blue line shows actual monthly averages.
Over the past year, the service delivery has varied.
The 12-month average service delivery from November 2023 to October 2024 was 98.1%.
OC Transpo was very close to the 99.5% target in March-April 2024.
In mid-October 2024 reliability fell as low as 95.8%, mostly due to a maintenance backlog.
There were some days and weeks where reliability exceeded 99.5%, for example the first week of January 2024 when service delivery was at 99.7%.
It’s not a perfect metric – for example, some routes have a higher percentage of cancellations than others, which isn’t obvious in the composite number – but it is useful for councillors to track overall performance from month-to-month. Each month at Transit Commission, we review progress and dig into the reasons behind any changes to the reliability.
OC Transpo also tracks a many other metrics for buses, light rail, and Para Transpo internally, including separate metrics for on-time performance. High-level metrics are reported monthly at committee and I post a summary at glengower.ca/octranspo.
What factors affect bus reliability?
Here’s a slide presented at the November 2024 Transit Commission meeting, showing bus service delivery details for October 2024.
It shows a service delivery level of 97.4% during the month, with 2.6% of trips undelivered. Breaking down that 2.6%:
0.4%: mechanical breakdowns (related to maintenance)
0.5%: no bus available (related to maintenance)
0.7%: operator availability (due to illness, absences, etc.)
1.0%: on-street adjustments (mostly due to traffic)
0.0%: rail replacement service (when R1 is in service due to LRT outages, some regular route service gets cancelled)
What’s being done to improve reliability?
OC Transpo’s plan focuses on three areas to improve reliability:
1. Recruitment: For the past two years, OC Transpo has conducted a massive recruitment and hiring campaign, bringing on hundreds of new bus operators. Like many service-focused organizations, recruiting and retaining staff has been a big challenge since the pandemic. Since 2022, OC Transpo has hired 828 new bus operator trainees, and since September 2024 they’ve had a full roster of operators. Recruitment campaigns continue, since there is a constant turnover of drivers due to retirements, promotions, and natural attrition. Besides recruitment, OC Transpo is also working with staff and unions to better manage absenteeism and employee satisfaction.
2. Bus maintenance action plan: There are three main factors at play, including a shortage of mechanics and technicians; an aging fleet with a large number of buses approaching end-of-life; and delays in delivery of our first cohort of electric buses.
OC Transpo has accelerated their recruitment efforts to hire more technicians and other skilled tradespeople (including through apprenticeships) while also providing additional training to current mechanics and supervisors. They’re also extending partnerships with other transit agencies and suppliers to provide more resources to the maintenance team.
For electric buses, OC Transpo there should be 26 new buses in service by the end of March, 2025. The first of a new order of New Flyer XE40 zero-emission buses went into service on January 10, 2025. Another 51 zero-emission buses will arrive in early 2026. Since there continue to be manufacturing delays across the industry, OC Transpo will also be procuring additional high-capacity diesel buses to augment the fleet as quickly as possible.
In the meantime, OC Transpo has short-term and medium-term initiatives to reduce the maintenance backlog for buses. The 2025 budget included an additional $12-million for bus refurbishment, $104-million to support bus fleet maintenance (an increase of $17-million over 2024);
3. Bus route review: Completed in fall 2023, the new route network (“New Ways to Bus”) will be implemented in April 2025. It’s the most extensive change to the bus network in years and includes route changes designed to decrease delays and cancellations due to on-street traffic. Some routes have been shortened (split into two routes); some have been re-rerouted for a more efficient trip; and many routes will have new schedules to better reflect changing traffic patterns.
What’s next
Bus reliability has improved slightly over the past year, but it’s still falling short of the 99.5% service delivery target. OC Transpo customers are understandably frustrated with the slow rate of improvement.
In the near term (the next few weeks):
Lines 2/4 LRT will be a big boost to reliability for people moving north-south through Ottawa, especially for Carleton University students. The eastern extension of Line 1 will open in the second half of 2025.
Service delays affecting Para Transpo in December have now been resolved.
In the medium term (the next few months):
As more mechanics are recruited and trained, and as more electric buses arrive to replace aging diesel buses, we’ll see bus maintenance gradually stabilize.
The New Ways to Bus route network will launch in April 2025.
Longer term:
We need to push for more investments in things like dedicated bus lanes, new rapid transit infrastructure (light rail, Transitways, etc.), and more frequency for bus routes. There’s an opportunity for Council set the stage for more investment in transit through our upcoming Transportation Master Plan (TMP) and the Transit Long Range Financial Plan (LRFP), both coming in 2025.
My council colleagues and I will continue to press for updates on all of these issues at our monthly Transit Commission meetings.
OC Transpo is encouraging customers to use the Transit app when planning their trip since it provides real-time updates on trips, including cancellation alerts and GPS bus tracking.