Frequent transit, by the numbers

Where should we focus transit funding on a limited budget?

Yesterday Ottawa City Council spent almost three hours debating a 5-minute service change to LRT off-peak service. A majority of councillors (included me) voted to keep the current 10-minute headways¹ until we see ridership data that justifies the extra service.

As councillors we often govern on vibes or gut feelings, instead of looking at the actual numbers. Here’s a snapshot of average weekday OC Transpo train ridership during the second week of September, based on data that was shared yesterday at City Council by OC Transpo:²

The numbers show that off-peak ridership is less than half of peak ridership. OC Transpo officials say when ridership reaches 90% capacity, that’s when they would consider increasing the frequency of trains.  They’re looking at ridership numbers daily and can adjust service quickly if needed.

OC Transpo makes continual adjustments to service on bus routes and train lines. When a bus route is close to capacity, they can add a bigger bus or increase frequency. When a route has very low ridership, they might switch to a smaller bus or look at reducing frequency (or in the future, move to on-demand transit). They’ve applied the same lens to the train. 

Budget crunch

OC Transpo has a projected deficit this year of $25.6-million dollars. Part of that will be funded from the $7-million transit reserve, and the rest will come from other city reserves meant for emergency situations: a tornado or flood or extreme snowfall; a pandemic; an unexpected infrastructure break-down. Unlike the federal and provincial governments, we can’t run a deficit for operating expenses.

So every dollar counts. We don’t have an unlimited amount of money and we’re already well over budget. Keeping service at 10 minutes in off-peak hours instead of 5 minutes will save $600,000 in 2024, or $1.6-million over a full year.

We have to focus spending on areas where the need is greatest, and right now that need is greatest in our bus network, and less so in off-peak hours of LRT.

10 minutes is frequent

It’s true that 10 minute train service is less convenient than 5 minute train service, and any change we make to transit has a direct impact on transit customers. It’s not something to take lightly.

Most transit systems around the world have more service in rush hour than they do in off-peak. Many cities have 10-minute frequencies during off-peak.

Source: Union Internationale des Transports Publics

Would 5 minute train headways attract more customers to transit?

Maybe? But it’s not the only transit investment that would have a positive impact. Some alternatives:

• Higher-frequency bus routes (15 minute headways instead of 30 minute headways, 8 minute headways instead of 15 minute headways, etc.)

• Expanded weekend service

• On-demand transit

• Reducing ParaTranspo wait times

In Stittsville for example, I’m focused on increasing the frequency of Routes 61 and 62; adding weekend service to Blackstone/Fernbank where it doesn’t currently exist; and improving service outside of rush hour.  Some of these changes will come with the launch of New Ways to Bus later this fall.

More frequency equals higher rider satisfaction and more reliability too, and it is definitely something we need to focus on for OC Transpo, especially on bus routes.

This is a warm-up

Yesterday’s debate was a preview of budget season, and it was helpful to air out various viewpoints and concerns.

What I heard clearly is that everyone around the council table is concerned about the level of service, for train and bus. Everybody wants a stronger, more reliable transit system.

But how do we pay for that? If we don’t get money from the provincial and federal governments to fill our $120-million budget gap in 2025, we have three levers to adjust: fares, taxes, and service changes. So far there’s no agreement on how to pull those levers.

Other cities are struggling with this too. Vancouver has warned about a cut to 50% of their transit services by the end of 2025.  Montreal is looking at converting some suburban rail lines to bus lines, and closing stations. Calgary has decided to end their Green Line LRT project.

I’m envious of our neighbours across the river in Gatineau. They’ve set an ambitious goal of 15 minute service on every bus route. They’re not there yet, but with more support from their provincial government they’ll be able to make some meaningful improvements in 2025.

Mayor Sutcliffe and leaders in many other cities across Canada are asking provincial and federal governments for assistance. We need investment not just to balance the budget, but to actually expand and improve transit to serve residents in our growing cities.

OC Transpo performance dashboard

Here’s the latest data on OC Transpo ridership, service delivery and performance, based on information presented at Transit Committee last week.

1. Headways is the industry term for the time between two trains or buses. A headway of ten minutes means that trains arrive every ten minutes.

2. 7,200 capacity is based on 12 trains per hour operating every five minutes, with 600 customers per train. 3,600 capacity is based on 6 trains per hour operating every 10 minutes, with 600 customers per train.