Transportation trends in Ottawa (Part 4)

Transit trends from the Origin-Destination study

In June, Ottawa transportation planners released the long-awaited results of the 2022 Origin-Destination (OD) study, and it’s full of fascinating info about how transportation patterns are changing in Ottawa post-pandemic. The reports are available at engage.ottawa.ca.

I’ve been diving in to the data in four parts.

• Part 1: Overall trends

• Part 2: Where to?

• Part 3: Vehicle ownership

• Part 4: Transit (this post)

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Why did the City do this OD study in the first place?

Two main reasons.

First, Ottawa’s new Official Plan sets a target that by 2026, the majority of trips (at least 50%) will be made by sustainable transportation, such as walking, cycling, transit or carpooling. This survey gives us a good baseline to measure from. We’ll need to see a big increase in transit mode share in the next 15 years if we’re going to achieve the target.

Daily Mode Share Over Time (1995-2022)

Second, the data from the study gives insight into where we should prioritize major transportation infrastructure investments to meet current demand and attract new riders.

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The pandemic changed transit ridership

Annual Transit Trips (2010 – 2023)

From the report:

“Transit ridership has decreased significantly as a result of the pandemic and the reduction in work commute trips – especially work commute trips to downtown. Whereas 2022 automobile traffic had rebounded to approximately 85% of pre-pandemic volumes, transit ridership was at roughly 75% of pre-pandemic levels as of December 2023.”

Ridership recovery varies a lot depending based on workplace, geography, income, and demographics.

• With fewer commuters heading downtown, LRT ridership has been slower to recover than bus ridership.

• Weekend bus ridership has exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

• Routes 88 and 80 are at 95% of pre-pandemic levels.¹

• Routes 19, 24, 55, 62, 87, 97 and 99 are at 90% of pre-pandemic levels.²

(We are still seeing ridership recovery/growth year-over-year. I keep a dashboard of the latest transit ridership data at glengower.ca/octranspo.)

Another interesting fact from June’s Transit Commission meeting: As of May 2024, adult pass sales are at 32% of 2019 levels while all other pass types combined (students, seniors, Equipass, etc.) are at 99%.³

Again from the report (emphasis is mine):

• “The OD Survey results show that transit has been disproportionally impacted by changes in travel patterns. Many trips that had a high transit mode share are no longer occurring, by any mode (e.g. work trips to downtown).”

Change in Daily Trips per Capita (2011-2022)

• “In 2011, transit mode share was 49% for morning peak period work trips to downtown from other parts of the city. Almost half of these trips are no longer occurring, by any mode. For the remaining trips, transit mode share dropped to 32%.”

• “According to the Commuter Attitudes Survey, 73% of National Capital Region commuters who shifted away from public transit are now driving alone; walking, cycling and carpooling account for another 8-9% each.”

• “Hybrid workers who only commute a few days a week are unlikely to purchase a monthly transit pass. With infrequent work trips and without a transit pass, people are more likely to choose to drive to work, even if this entails paying high parking costs and/or tolerating congestion.”

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The future

To me, there are three keys to ridership recovery for OC Transpo.

First: Improve reliability and customer service. Improve on-time performance, and ensure safety and security, accessibility, and cleanliness of vehicles and stations.

Second: Bring people close to transit. Through our Official Plan and New Zoning By-law, we’re focusing more housing near transit stations and frequent transit lines.

Three: Bring transit to where people need it, including better connections to more parts of the city including housing, employment, retail, and entertainment.

This third point is where the OD survey has already helped. OC Transpo planners used the findings to inform the revamped transit network known as “New Ways to Bus”, set to launch later this year.

At a higher level, the broad travel trends identified by the OD will tell us where we should transit investments (new LRT lines and Transitways, priority bus lanes, etc.), not only to meet current demand but to attract new riders. (See my previous post about where people are going.)

Ottawa is projected to grow to at least 1.4-million people by 2046. As the report notes: “As Ottawa grows and intensifies the transportation network will need to move more people and goods using the space available today.”

And how do you move more people in a finite amount of space? Invest in public transit!

1. Route 88 crosses the city east-west along the Hazeldean-Baseline-Heron, passing through Algonquin College. Route 80 is a north-south route travelling from Tunney’s Pasture to Barrhaven via Merivale.

2. Route 19 runs between downtown and St. Laurent through Sandy Hill, Lowertown, and Vanier.
Route 24 serves the east end between St. Laurent and Beacon Hill via Ogilvie.
Route 55 runs between Westgate and St. Laurent via Carling, Lees, Main, and Smyth.
Route 62 runs between Tunney’s and Stittsville.
Route 87 runs between Tunney’s and Baseline via woodroffe.
Route 97 runs north-south between Hurdman and the Airport on the Transitway.
Route 99 runs between Hurdman to South Keys to Barrhaven including service to Riverside South.

3. Another factor in reduced pass sales is probably O-Payment, which eliminates the need for advance adult pass sales all together.